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Batté, Lauriane; Chevallier, Matthieu; Ardilouze, Constantin;

Oral presentation at EMS2018 session OSA1.5 (Forecast verification) of verification of sea ice seasonal prediction quality in the APPLICATE stream 1 re-forecasts.

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Batté, Lauriane; Acosta Navarro, Juan C.; Chevallier, Matthieu; Ortega, Pablo; Smith, Doug

This poster, presented at the S2S/S2D International conferences in Boulder, CO (USA) in September 2018, shows evaluations of H2020-APPLICATE stream 1 seasonal re-forecasts over the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes and Arctic region, for June-July-August (May initialization) and December-January-February (November initialization), over a common re-forecast period of 22 years.

Skill in forecasting anomalies for sea level pressure and near-surface temperature is assessed using a fair CRPSS and grid-point correlation.

For sea ice, metrics introduced by Goessling et al. (2016, 2018) show the ability of these models to represent the position of the ice edge according to forecast time, using NSIDC data as a reference.

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Ortega, Pablo;

This webinar focuses on the APPLICATE project, presenting its main objectives and the multi-model experimental framework in which it relies to assess and improve the predictive capacity of the Arctic and beyond. Dr. Ortega presents a few examples of the project's seasonal prediction activities, including a multi-model comparison of the predictive skill in Arctic sea ice for all the seasonal forecast systems participating to the project, a first exploration of a suite of experiments assessing the added-value of increasing both the atmospheric and oceanic resolution on seasonal prediction skill, results from empirical statistical models evaluating the optimal number of locations needed to estimate robustly the evolution of Pan-Arctic Sea Ice Volume, and an analysis of how the different forecast errors in Arctic sea ice develop in the EC-Earth and CNRM systems

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Køltzow, Morten; Casati, Barbara; Haiden, Thomas; Valkonen, Teresa;

Increased human activity in the Arctic calls for accurate and reliable weather predictions. This study presents an intercomparison of operational and/or high-resolution models in an attempt to establish a baseline for present-day Arctic short-range forecast capabilities for near-surface weather (pressure, wind speed, temperature, precipitation, and total cloud cover) during winter. One global model [the highresolution version of the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (IFS-HRES)], and three high-resolution, limited-area models [Applications of Research to Operations at Mesoscale (AROME)-Arctic, Canadian Arctic Prediction System (CAPS), and AROME with Météo-France setup (MF-AROME)] are evaluated. As part of the model intercomparison, several aspects of the impact of observation errors and representativeness on the verification are discussed. The results show how the forecasts differ in their spatial details and how forecast accuracy varies with region, parameter, lead time, weather, and forecast system, and they confirm many findings from mid- or lower latitudes. While some weaknesses are unique or more pronounced in some of the systems, several common model deficiencies are found, such as forecasting temperature during cloudfree, calm weather; a cold bias in windy conditions; the distinction between freezing and melting conditions; underestimation of solid precipitation; less skillful wind speed forecasts over land than over ocean; and difficulties with small-scale spatial variability. The added value of high-resolution limited area models is most pronounced for wind speed and temperature in regions with complex terrain and coastlines. However, forecast errors grow faster in the high-resolution models. This study also shows that observation errors and representativeness can account for a substantial part of the difference between forecast and observations in standard verification.

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Jung, Thomas; Cristini, Luisa; the APPLICATE Consortium;

Abstract of the presentation given by Thomas Jung at the 2nd EU Climate Modelling "Workshop on Climate Prediction in the Atlantic-Arctic sector" in Bergen (NO), Jointly organised by the Bjerknes Climate Prediction Unit and the EU Modelling Cluster.

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Marta Terrado; Dragana Bojovic; Isadora Christel; Juan Acosta; Pablo Ortega; Markus Donat; Llorenç Lledó; Halldór Jóhannsson; Thomas Jung;

Presentation on the APPLICATE energy case study in the webinar 'Climate services for energy: sharing knowledge through case studies' organised by the European H2020 project Climateurope

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Marta Terrado; Dragana Bojovic; Isadora Christel; Juan Acosta; Pablo Ortega; Marcus Donat; Llorenç Lledó; Albert Soret; Halldór Jóhannsson; Thomas Jung

Energy case study: Effects of Arctic sea ice on energy production in mid-latitudes. Winter 2016-17 event identified as relevant by stakeholders in the energy sector

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Hinrichs, Claudia; Koldunov, Nikolay; Wang, Qiang;

The fully coupled climate model AWI-CM is run on two different ocean grids to investigate the impact of horizontal resolution on the simulated Arctic Ocean circulation, and Arctic-Atlantic as well as Arctic Pacific linkages. The ocean-sea ice component runs on an unstructured grid, the low-resolution version has a grid size of about 24 km in the Arctic Ocean, while the high-resolution grid has a grid size of about 4.5 km resolution in the Arctic Ocean. The high-resolution grid has already been tested in uncoupled runs with CORE-II forcing, where is showed improved representation of Atlantic Water circulation and associated heat content in the Arctic. Now, the impact of the higher resolution will be assessed in the coupled set-up and on longer time scales (150 years).

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Svenya Chripko, Rym Msadek, Emilia Sanchez-Gomez, and Laurent Terray;

Summary of the presentation given im Vienna at EGU 2019 by Svenya Chripko and by Rym Msadek at a CMIP6 workshop in Bordeaux (France) in May 2019.

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Juan Camilo Acosta;

Poster presented at the CMIP6 workshop in Barcelona during March 2019.

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