Cruz-García, Rubén Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC-CNS), Barcelona, Spain ; Guemas, Virginie; Chevallier, Matthieu; Massonnet, Fraçois
Arctic sea ice plays a central role in the Earth’s climate. Changes in the sea ice on seasonal-to-interannual timescales impact ecosystems, populations and a growing number of stakeholders. A prerequisite for achieving better sea ice predictions is a better understanding of the underlying mechanisms of sea ice predictability.
- Full Article: https://www.zenodo.org/record/2540630#.XFlSj537S70
Blockley, Edward W.; Peterson, K. Andrew;
Interest in seasonal predictions of Arctic sea ice has been increasing in recent years owing, primarily, to the sharp reduction in Arctic sea-ice cover observed over the last few decades, a decline that is projected to continue.
- Full Article: https://www.zenodo.org/record/1477991#.W-1wqlT7S70
Goessling, Helge; Jung, Thomas;
We introduce a verification score for probabilistic forecasts of contours – the Spatial Probability Score (SPS). Defined as the spatial integral of local (Half) Brier Scores, the SPS can be considered the spatial analogue of the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS).
- Full Article: https://www.zenodo.org/record/1470466#.W-1voFT7S70
Hartung, Kerstin; Svensson, Gunilla; Struthers, Hamish; Deppenmeier, Anna-Lena; Hazeleger, Wilco;
Original research paper.
- Full Article: https://www.zenodo.org/record/1470535#.W-1wAlT7S70
Zampieri, Lorenzo; Goessling, Helge F.; Jung, Thomas;
The need for reliable forecasts for the sea ice evolution from weeks to months in advance has substantially grown in the last decade. Sea ice forecasts are of critical importance to manage the opportunities and risks that come with increasing socioeconomic activities in the rapidly changing Arctic, which, despite the reduction of the sea ice cover, remains an extreme environment.
- Full Article: https://www.zenodo.org/record/1471501#.W-1wXlT7S70
Keen, Ann; Blockley, Ed;
We present a method for analysing changes in the modelled volume budget of the Arctic sea ice as the ice declines during the 21st century. We apply the method to the CMIP5 global coupled model HadGEM2-ES to evaluate how the budget components evolve under a range of different forcing scenarios.
- Full Article: https://www.zenodo.org/record/1478001#.W-1w01T7S70
Tummon, F; Day, J; Svensson, G;
The polar prediction problem is inherently multidisciplinary and requires cooperation across a wide community. Thus, an international group of agencies specifically designed a 10-day training course to bring together a wide group of students and lecturers to cover important topics related to polar prediction.
- Full Article: https://www.zenodo.org/record/1341815#.W-1vUlT7S70
Roberts, MJ; Vidale, PL; Senior, C; Hewitt, HT; Bates, C; Berthou, S; Chang, P; Christensen, HM; Danilov, S; Demory, M-E; Griffies, SM; Haarsma, R; Jung, T; Martin, G; Minobe, S; Ringler, T; Satoh, M; Schiemann, R; Scoccimarro, E; Stephens, G; Wehner, MF;
A perspective on current and future capabilities in global high-resolution climate simulation for assessing climate risks over next few decades, including advances in process representation and analysis, justifying the emergence of dedicated, coordinated experimental protocols.
- Full Article: https://www.zenodo.org/record/1341040#.W-1vBVT7S70
Massonnet, François; Vancoppenolle, Martin; Goosse, Hugues; Docquier, David; Fichefet, Thierry; Edward Blanchard-Wrigglesworth;
One of the clearest manifestations of ongoing global climate change is the dramatic retreat and thinning of the Arctic sea-ice cover. While all state-of-the-art climate models consistently reproduce the sign of these changes, they largely disagree on their magnitude, the reasons for which remain contentious.
- Full Article: https://www.zenodo.org/record/1294678#.W-1utFT7S70
Svensson, Gunilla; Hartung, Kerstin;
Poster presented at the PAN-GASS meeting in Lorne, Australia, February 2018
- Full Article: https://www.zenodo.org/record/1291635#.W-1uWVT7S70