In our previous work Melia et al (2016) we showed how trans-Arctic shipping routes would become more available through the 21st century as sea ice declines, using multiple Climate models calibrated to current sea ice observations, eg Figure 1. But sea ice will continue to close shipping routes to open water vessels through the winter months for the foreseeable future and the availability of open sea routes will vary greatly from year to year. In a new paper just published Melia et al (2017) looks at whether the shipping season period (when sea routes are open) can be predicted in seasonal forecasts, again using several climate models, and testing both perfect and imperfect knowledge of the initial sea ice conditions.
The July report for the 2017 Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) is now available. The SIO is an activity of the Sea Ice Prediction Network project (SIPN) as a contribution to the Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH). The goal of the SIO is to improve Arctic sea ice prediction on seasonal time-scales.
Since October 2015, more than fifty projects aiming at improving polar prediction skills by various scientific approaches have been endorsed by the Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) initiative. We now open the institutional YOPP endorsement and invite research institutes, operational forecasting centers and various other groups and networks whose activities contribute to the succes of YOPP to request endorsement. Institutional endorsement differs from the hitherto available project endorsement by YOPP as it addresses general contributions to improving polar predictive skill rather than individual academic projects or programmes often sponsored through third party funding. With the institutional endorsement we provide the possibility for research consortia such as operational weather forecasting centres, academic institutions, or networks to link with the Year of Polar Prediction.
A new study has been published by members of the APPLICATE consortium in the journal Advances in Atmospheric Sciences (http://188.8.131.52/aas/EN/10.1007/s00376-017-6290-4#AbstractTab) in which methods from numerical weather prediction are employed to understand how the Arctic influences weather and climate in mid-latitudes. Two pathways are identified along which the Arctic influences mid-latitudes, one pronounced one over Eurasia and Eastern Europe and a secondary one over North America.
The EU Horizon 2020-funded APPLICATE project, in cooperation with the World Meteorological Organisation’s Polar Prediction Project (PPP) in occasion of the Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP), the Association of Polar Early Career Scientists (APECS) and other partners are organising the second Polar Prediction School 2018 on weather and climate prediction in the polar regions from17 - 27 April 2018 at Abisko Scientific Research Station in Sweden.
APPLICATE Work Package 3 “Atmospheric and oceanic linkages” investigates the impact of Arctic sea ice on the mid-latitude atmospheric circulation using carefully designed coordinated multi-model numerical experiments. Two international meetings have now taken place in Washington DC (1-3 February 2017) and Aspen (11-16 June 2017) resulting in the development of a new Model Intercomparison Project (MIP) for the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6).
ECMWF has begun to generate an extended two-year global dataset to support the World Meteorological Organization’s Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP). The start of production was timed to coincide with the official launch of YOPP in Geneva, Switzerland, on 15 May.
The European Commission, EASME, is organising a climate and Earth system modelling workshop (hereinafter referred as "workshop") for exploiting synergies across four H2020 projects (APPLICATE, Blue-Action, CRESCENDO and PRIMAVERA) and incorporating research outcomes from a selected number of relevant FP7 projects around the topic: Evaluating climate and Earth system models at the process level.
The CSLC is looking to hire a researcher with expertise in glacier and ice shelf modelling. The scientist will work with others in a team to characterize Antarctic glaciers and assess their instability.