One of the overarching goals of APPLICATE is to improve sub-seasonal to seasonal climate predictions in the Arctic and beyond. To formally detect such improvements and disentangle them from background noise, the development of meaningful performance metrics simply referred to as “metrics” hereinafter, will be a key ingredient to the success of the project.
The purpose of this document is to lay the foundations of the general strategy that will be followed by the APPLICATE consortium for model and prediction system assessment during the project. More specifically, this document has two goals. First, it aims at proposing unambiguous definitions for terms that are commonly used but often loosely defined in the climate and weather communities (or used interchangeably) such as “metric”, “diagnostic” or “constraint”. Second, it aims at framing the development of metrics in APPLICATE by proposing a set of criteria that would make such metrics desirable, attractive and useful for the project.