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As a contribution to the modelling efforts of the Year of Polar Prediction, Météo France now provides Arctic and Antarctic forecast data sets. The model output is publicly available and can be used to compare with observational data produced during the YOPP Special Observing Periods.

During three YOPP Special Observing Periods, the number of observations of the weather and sea-ice conditions were increased in the Arctic and Antarctica. Model experiments during the remainder of the Polar Prediction Project until 2022 will show at what locations and which frequencies extra observations will be needed so that meteorological and sea ice forecasts in the polar regions can be improved. Small-Scale Large-Scale Research ActionOne of the operational centers contributing to YOPP is the French weather service Météo France. The National Centre for Meteorological Research CNRM provides forecast data for the three Special Observing Periods that were held in 2018 and 2019 in the high northern and southern latitudes. CNRM’s essential tools for operational weather forecasting are the two global numerical weather prediction models ARPEGE (ARPEGE stands for ‘Action de Recherche Petite Echelle Grande Echelle’; in English: Small-Scale Large-Scale Research Action) and AROME (AROME is the acronym for ‘Application of Research to Operations at Mesoscale’).A Data Point at Every 2.5 km For the two Arctic Special Observing Periods from 1 February 2018 to 31 March 2018 and from 1 July 2018 to 30 September 2018, modelling output from ARPEGE are available with data points at about every 7.5 to every 12.5 km over the thirteen YOPP Supersites in the Arctic (Fig 1). This output data contains forecasts of temperature, wind, clouds, humidity and other parameters for three days. In addition, within the YOPP-endorsed project APPLICATE, model experiments were carried out with the higher resolution model AROME over a domain around Svalbard and the Barents Sea: “The model output from AROME provides data every 2.5 km for each day during the Arctic Special Observing Periods at 00 and 12 UTC”, says Eric Bazile who leads this Météo France effort in support of YOPP. High-resolution Area from France Moved to AntarcticaIn the Antarctic, the Special Observing Period took place during the last austral summer, from 16 November 2018 to 15 February 2019. As a contribution to the YOPP in the Southern Hemisphere (YOPP-SH) effort, Bazile and his colleagues Vincent Guidard and Niramson Azouz have developed a dedicated configuration of the ARPEGE model, called the ARPEGE-Southern Hemisphere (ARPEGE-SH) version. Usually, ARPEGE has a rather low resolution over Antarctica (one data point at every 35 km) and a much higher one over France (around 7.5 km distance between each data point). But for this Antarctic experiment, Bazile and his team have moved the high-resolution area to Antarctica instead. Five- and ten-day forecasts at 00 and 12 UTC, as well as six-hours forecasts at 6 and 18 UTC are thus available for all 17 YOPP Supersites in the Antarctic (Fig. 2) and for four additional sites over the Third Pole/high mountain area. The experiments of the high-resolution AROME model forecasts with data points at every 2.5 km are still running but will be provided soon for the Antarctic YOPP Supersites Dumont d’Urville, Alexander Tall Tower!, and McMurdo. The data and corresponding technical information are available from the YOPP Data Portal and from the ftp server (user: yopp/password: Arpege). For any questions, please contact Eric Bazile This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Fig 1: Surface temperature from the ARPEGE model in the Arctic. The inlet map displays the high-resolution orography used over a domain around Svalbard and the Barents Sea for the AROME model output.

Fig 2: Surface temperature from the ARPEGE-SH model version for the Antarctic. The inlet map displays the high-resolution orography used over the Antarctic region with the YOPP Supersites Dumont d’Urville, Alexander Tall Tower!, and McMurdo that will soon be available from the AROME model output.

ARPEGE Surface Temperature and AROME orography

ARPEGE SH Surface Temperature and AROME orography