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One year after the endorsement of the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP) by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) panel as a contribution to the sixth phase of experiments, the experimental design has been published in the European Geosciences Union’s Journal Geoscientific Model Development. PAMIP will investigate the causes and global consequences of polar amplification through coordinated multi-model numerical experiments. A key goal of PAMIP is to determine the real-world situation using imperfect climate models.

"Although the experiments proposed form a coordinated set, we anticipate a large spread across models.” says Dr. Doug Smith, who leads the decadal climate prediction research and development at the Met Office Hadley Centre and coordinates the experiments “We will exploit this spread seeking “emergent constraints” in which model uncertainty may be reduced by using an observable quantity that physically explains the spread.”

Experiments with the protocol explained in the paper will take around one to two years for all of the participants (including five APPLICATE partners) to complete. Some groups have already started running the experiments, and preliminary results look promising in terms of improving our understanding of the linkages between the Arctic and the mid-latitudes.

The paper is open access and freely available at https://www.geosci-model-dev.net/12/1139/2019/

PAMIP results