Submission deadline: 6:00 p.m. (AKDT) Monday, 11 June 2018 (firm)
Detailed guidelines for contributors can be found at: https://www.arcus.org/sipn/sea-ice-outlook/2018/june/call
The Sea Ice Outlook provides an open process for those interested in Arctic sea ice to share ideas. The monthly reports contain a variety of perspectives—from advanced numerical models to qualitative perspectives from citizen scientists. Post-Season Reports will provide analysis and discussion of factors driving sea ice extent and explore the scientific methods for predicting seasonal conditions.
Pan-Arctic and Alaska Regional Sea Ice Extent Outlooks and any additional figures and gridded fields will be accepted for the 2018 June Outlook. We particularly encourage submissions for the Alaska region (i.e., Bering, Chukchi, and Beaufort seas) and submissions that include spatial forecast maps. The 2018 SIO will also accept pan-Antarctic sea ice extent of the September monthly mean. Informal sea ice observations and other parameters not included in the regular monthly reports are also invited.
New this year: all participants whose methods provide information at the local scale are encouraged to provide full spatial fields via the new SIPN Data Portal (https://www.atmos.uw.edu/sipn/). We can compute metrics such as sea ice probability and first ice-free day for you, as well as additional regional analysis for the Sea Ice Outlook.
Detailed contributor guidelines are available at: https://www.arcus.org/sipn/sea-ice-outlook/2018/june/call, and are summarized below.
- Required core information for Pan-Arctic Outlook projections using dynamical model, statistical, heuristic, and mixed methods will be collected via an online web form: https://nsidc.org/data/sipn/form-submission
- Contributors have the option of submitting additional Outlook report details, including discussions and details related to uncertainties/probabilities, via the same online web form: https://nsidc.org/data/sipn/form-submission
- Submissions of spatial field sea ice forecasts (full raw fields or post-processed fields) will be collected via a new SIPN Data Portal. Please see further instructions below.
For more information about the SIO, please see: http://www.arcus.org/sipn/sea-ice-outlook.
Contributions are also invited to the Sea Ice Drift Forecast Experiment (SIDFEx, 2017-2020) - a community effort to collect and analyze Arctic sea ice drift forecasts at lead times from days to a year based on arbitrary methods for a number of sea-ice buoys and, ultimately, the MOSAiC Drift. SIDFEx is aligned with the SIO such that modelling groups contributing to the Sea Ice Outlook can contribute to SIDFEx relatively easily by computing trajectories for Lagrangian tracers. Last year’s results have been described briefly in the 2017 post-season report. For details, please go to: http://www.polarprediction.net/yopp-activities/sidfex/.
Tentative Schedule for Sea Ice Outlook 2018 Monthly Reports
JUNE REPORT: (Based on May data)
- 25 May 2018 (Friday): Call for Contributions for June Report
- 11 June 2018 (Monday): Contributions Due for June Report
- 20 June 2018 (Wednesday): June Report Released
JULY REPORT: (Based on May and June data)
- 29 June 2018 (Friday): Call for Contributions for July Report
- 11 July 2018 (Wednesday): Contributions Due for July Report
- 20 July 2018 (Friday): July Report Released
AUGUST REPORT: (Based on May, June, and July data)
- 27 July 2018 (Friday): Call for Contributions for August Report
- 13 August 2018 (Monday): Contributions Due for August Report
- 22 August 2018 (Wednesday): August Report Released
POST-SEASON INTERIM REPORT:
- Focus on performance of Outlooks as compared to sea ice minimum.
- Developed following the conclusion of the retreat season.
- Published in mid- to late-October 2018.
POST-SEASON FINAL REPORT:
- Analysis and discussion of factors driving sea ice extent during the 2018 melt season.
- Developed during November – December 2018.
- Published early January 2019.