APPLICATE Work Package 3 “Atmospheric and oceanic linkages” investigates the impact of Arctic sea ice on the mid-latitude atmospheric circulation using carefully designed coordinated multi-model numerical experiments. Two international meetings have now taken place in Washington DC (1-3 February 2017) and Aspen (11-16 June 2017) resulting in the development of a new Model Intercomparison Project (MIP) for the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6).
The new MIP has been called Polar Amplification MIP (PA-MIP), and will investigate the causes and consequences of polar amplification. A PA-MIP panel has been assembled in order to develop the coordinated experiments. Panel members are experts on polar amplification from across the international community, and include representatives from the APPLICATE and Blue-Action projects. An initial set of 20 coordinated experiments grouped into six clusters has been proposed including atmosphere-only and fully-coupled time slice and transient experiments. Monthly mean fields of sea ice concentration and sea surface temperature for the present day, pre-industrial and future periods will be used as forcings for the experiments. Present day fields will be obtained from observations. Future and pre-industrial fields will be obtained from the ensemble of CMIP5 historical and Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) simulations using present day observations as an “emergent constraint”. The PA-MIP proposal will be submitted to the CMIP6 panel for consideration as an endorsed CMIP6 MIP over the coming months, and documented in a paper in preparation for the journal Geoscientific Model Developments.
video about polar predictions: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fMKo5zlzx9A